[Ai Ke X TRADING Report] Gold is still weak and new low is in sight of the euro shock tomorrow resolution

Huitong.com October 25th - Aike Financial X TRADING Report - October 25, 2017

On Tuesday (October 24), due to the obvious differences between the two major US party members on the issue of tax reform, the US dollar index once dive to the bottom, while the gold price rebounded rapidly and narrowed the decline to 0.1%. However, the news that the hawkish candidate Taylor may be elected as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the dollar index rebounded rapidly, putting the price of gold under pressure.

The technical team of Aike Royal College believes that the news about the next chairman of the Fed has continued to hit the market in the near future. According to reports already reported in the market, the next Fed chairman is likely to be between Powell and Taylor, but due to two The monetary policy stance is different. In the end, the impact of who can be elected on the market will be quite different. However, our view on this is only the extent of the dollar's rise and the short-term explosiveness, because at present, no matter who is elected, the policy orientation of the next rate hike will not change.

The euro/dollar did not see a pre-targeted risk return before the announcement of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy announcement, on the grounds that it was difficult to determine what the market's “consensus expectations” and market “pricing” were, and the potential for various aspects. Variety. At present, we expect that the European Central Bank will extend the quantitative easing (QE) policy at a slower pace, and will extend the quantitative easing policy for 9 months at a rate of 30 billion euros per month, but it does not rule out the monthly value of 20 billion to 25 billion US dollars. The possibility of a 12-month speed increase. The ECB is unlikely to commit to reducing quantitative easing to zero before the end of the extension period.



Long and short dividing line: 1.1780

Support: 1.1730 1.1680 1.1620
Resistance: 1.1820 1.1920 1.2000

Preferred strategy: short below 1.1780, look at 1.1730 1.1680
Alternative strategy: Do more above 1.1780, look at 1.1820 1.1920

Recommended transaction star rating: 3 stars

Percentage of long and short trades: 50% buy

Comments: The euro seems to move up in the pattern yesterday, but the space for the rise is not large, the early morning rushed back, the morning hour line continued to turn negative, it is difficult to have a large rebound momentum in the day, so it is necessary to short rallies , the trend of the day, the euro 1.1765 empty, stop loss 30 points, the target 1.1680.

GBP/USD Tuesday (October 24) The pound fell to a two-week low against the dollar, mainly due to the uncertainty of whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates for the first time in more than 10 years next week. As of now, the pound against the US dollar reported 1.3126, down 0.55%. A survey by Reuters on Tuesday found that 46 of the 64 economists expect a rate hike when the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting next week and the latest quarterly inflation report are released.



Long and short dividing line: 1.3230

Support: 1.3170 1.3100 1.3030
Resistance: 1.3340 1.3420 1.3480

Preferred strategy: short below 1.3230, look down 1.3170 1.3100
Alternative strategy: Do more than 1.3230, look at 1.3340 1.3420

Recommended transaction star rating: 4 stars

Percentage of long and short trades: 82% buy

Comments: In the 4 hours chart, the pound is supported by the uptrend line, and the magnitude of each rebound is relatively large. It is safer to take the interval, and the trend of the day, the short position of the pound 1.3150-1.3200, stop loss 1.3230, target 1.3050.

AUD/USD Wednesday (October 25) Asian market in early trading, AUD/USD is at around 0.7720. The Australian dollar fell sharply during the day, hitting a low of 0.7719 in intraday trading, as the latest third-quarter CPI data in Australia fell short of expectations. According to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in the day, Australia's CPI annual growth rate is 1.8% in the third quarter, which is expected to increase by 2.0%. The previous value is 1.9%; the quarter rate is 0.6%, and the expected value is 0.8%. The previous value is Increased by 0.2%.



Long and short dividing line: 0.7870

Support: 0.7810 0.7750 0.7700
Resistance: 0.7920 0.8000 0.8050

Preferred strategy: short above 0.7870, look at 0.7810 0.7750
Alternative strategy: Do more under 0.7870, look at 0.7920 0.8000

Recommended transaction star rating: 4 stars

Percentage of long and short trades: 66% buy

Comments: The Australian dollar fell directly in the Asian plate in the morning. In the past two weeks, we have been short-selling the Australian dollar. The analysis is relatively difficult to grasp is the grasp of the time node, followed by the choice of the entry point. The simple direction can theoretically achieve a 50% winning rate. After a period of study, 65% of the direction is no problem. Trading is willing to lose 10 orders with the trend, and don't go against the trend without a stop loss. Only continuous summarization, time rhythm grasp, entry point, stop loss point, target point, can constantly find the best sense of disk. The loss is not terrible. The scary thing is that we dare not admit that we are wrong. In addition, the greater the profit-loss ratio, the lower the winning rate and the lower the risk; the higher the winning rate, the greater the risk. During the day, the Australian dollar was 0.7750, with a stop loss of 25 points and a target of 40 points.

USD/JPY Tuesday (October 24) USD/JPY rebounded slightly from the low point, hitting 113.57 in the session. The news of the Japanese election last day raised the exchange rate to 114, but then the gains were weak. The spit rose and fell.



Long and short dividing line: 113.20

Support: 112.30 111.50 111.00
Resistance: 114.40 115.20 116.00

Preferred strategy: Do more than 113.20, see 114.40 115.20
Alternative strategy: short below 113.20, see 112.30 111.50

Recommended transaction star rating: 3 stars

Percentage of long and short trades: 70% sold

Comments: The US and Japan bulls continue to strengthen, expecting their callback to 50 points, it is not realistic, the strong resistance above the daily line is at 114.35, and the distance from the current price of 113.85, the band continues to see more. During the day, the US and Japan 113.70 aggressively long, stop loss 25 points, target 114.10.

Gold International Spot Gold continued to weigh around $1,275 per ounce in Asian trading on Wednesday (October 25), and Tuesday (October 24) reported that Republican lawmakers support Stanford University economist Taylor to take over the Fed (FED) Chairman, triggering the rise in US bond yields and boosting the US dollar index, the gold price weakened again on the same day and approached the more than two-week low of $1271.70 per ounce hit on the previous trading day.



Long and short dividing line: 1285

Support resistance

Preferred strategy: short below 1285, see 1276 1268
Alternative strategy: Do more than 1285, look at 1296 1305

Recommended transaction star rating: 4 stars

Percentage of long and short trades: 81% buy

Comments: The resistance of the gold daily line has moved down to the 1283 line. With the weak down yesterday, it is very easy to refresh the weekly low point. Then we make two assumptions. 1. The direct wave of gold penetrates the 1266 support; 2 , fake 1266, then rebound 6-8 dollars, then go down again, in short, bear gold. During the day, gold 1277 was aggressively short, with a stop loss of $3.50 and a target of 1266.

US crude oil index Brent crude oil futures closed 1.7% higher at $58.33 a barrel, while US WTI crude oil futures also rose more than 1% to $52.47 a barrel. Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter, said it was determined to end the oversupply of crude oil. In addition, oil prices were also boosted by expectations of further declines in US crude oil inventories and uneasy feelings about tensions in the Kurdish region of Iraq. Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Farifhe, said on Tuesday that although the international community is pushing for more renewable energy, global oil demand is expected to grow by 45% by 2050.



Long and short dividing line: 50.40

Support: 49.40 48.50 47.20
Resistance: 52.00 53.80 55.00

Preferred strategy: Do more than 50.40, see 52.00 53.80
Alternative strategy: short below 50.40, see below 49.40 48.50

Recommended transaction star rating: 3 stars

Percentage of long and short trades: 73% of sells

Comments: Crude oil daily line closed Yang, yesterday back to the low point of 51.50, in accordance with normal operations, it should continue to be bullish on the daily support, but the risk is greater, today does not regard the high of 52.8 as strong resistance, but in Above the low point of the daily line, the light warehouse is bullish for crude oil; during the day, the US crude oil is more than 52.00, with a stop loss of 51.50 and a target of 53.00.


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