In the past 2016, gold ended its three-year losing streak and gained 8.63%. At the beginning of the new year, the price of gold continued to rise. On January 4, the most active February gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures market rose by 3.3 dollars from the previous trading day to close at 1165.3 US dollars per ounce, an increase of 0.28%. .

Affected by the Brexit referendum and other factors, the gold futures price rose all the way in the first half of last year. In July and August, it reached more than 1,300 US dollars per ounce. However, in the second half of the year, due to the election of Trump as president of the United States and its policy objectives, the gold futures price fell all the way, falling more than 8% in November last year. On the surface, the volatility of the price of gold is only the rise and fall of commodity prices, and behind it, there are not only market factors, but also little-known strategic considerations.

黄金的另一种颜色

The value of all legal tenders today is the credit of national sovereignty behind this paper. Which country has a high sovereign credit, which country has a higher currency value, and the scope of use and circulation is wider. As one of the oldest equivalent exchanges, gold has a certain complementarity and substitution with legal tender. In order to obtain currency hegemony, it must replace the credit status of other currencies such as gold.

As we all know, the dollar hegemony was established in the new international order after the Second World War. Due to the currency nature of gold, the currency based on gold and its corresponding alternative system have become the only way to achieve international financial hegemony. In the Second World War, many countries and individuals transferred gold to the United States in order to avoid the risk of war. After World War II, the United States has nearly 75% of the world's reserve gold. The United States, with its huge gold reserves, has launched the Bretton Woods system, which is linked to the US dollar and gold, thus laying the world currency position of the US dollar and laying a solid foundation for the United States to become the guardian of the world financial and monetary order. In 1971, the United States announced its withdrawal from the Bretton Woods system, abandoning the gold dollar peg, allowing the dollar to depreciate sharply, and connecting other countries to allow the yen to appreciate. As a result, the Japanese economy entered a period of ten years of stagflation, while the dollar became The strongest currency in the world.

As the only non-credit entity financial asset in the world financial system, the importance of gold is self-evident. On the eve of the euro's issuance, the euro zone countries collectively increased their gold reserves, replacing the United States as the world's number one, thereby enhancing confidence in currency issuance and circulation. Therefore, the suppression of the price of gold and the weakening of its currency attributes can be described as one of the important strategies for the US to achieve dollar hegemony.

In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States. The Fed offered a banner of quantitative easing, the dollar assets depreciated sharply, and the price of gold hit a record high. Since then, Germany has launched the “Let the Gold Go Home” campaign, which advocates shipping nearly 700 tons of gold stored in the United States and France back to Frankfurt by the end of 2020. However, the United States firmly controls the "temporary release" of gold in the United States, and even for security reasons, it is not allowed to check the inventory.

In 2013, the price of gold suddenly fell off the cliff, and it was not unrelated to the market expectations of various agencies in the United States and the joint shorting. At this point, the price of gold fell, other currencies tend to be weak, and the dollar gradually returned to a firm position. The currency is naturally gold and silver. In view of the special functions and credit functions of gold, whether countries increase gold reserves in Mingli or secretly manipulate gold prices implied their economic, financial and political strategic intentions. The political color of gold will not fade for a long time.

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