Huitong.com November 26th - Next week, we will welcome the US non-farm report and the OPEC meeting in November. The foreign media survey expects the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States to increase by 180,000 in November, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%. OPEC will meet on November 30 to coordinate production cuts. Russia, which is not an OPEC oil producer, may also participate, but there are still differences within OPEC about which countries should cut production and reduce production.
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List of important economic data next week: Monday (November 28) event The former value Predictive value 23:30 US Dallas Fed Business Activity Index in November -1.5 1.5 Tuesday (November 29) event The former value Predictive value 7:30 Japan's unemployment rate in October (%) 3.0 3.0 7:50 Japan's October seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate (%) 0.3 1.1 15:45 France's third quarter GDP annual rate initial value (%) 1.1 1.1 18:00 Eurozone November economic sentiment index 106.3 21:00 Germany's November CPI annual rate initial value (%) 0.8 21:30 US third quarter real GDP annualized rate correction (%) 2.9 3.0 23:00 US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 98.6 101.2 5:30 the next day US crude oil inventories change for the week ending November 25 (10,000 barrels) -128 US gasoline inventory changes in the week ending November 25 (10,000 barrels) 268 Wednesday (November 30) event The former value Predictive value 8:01 UK November Gfk Consumer Confidence Index -3 -3 21:15 US ADP employment in November (10,000) 14.7 16 21:30 US core PCE price index in October (%) 1.7 1.7 US core PCE price index monthly rate (%) 0.1 0.1 21:30 Canada's adjusted GDP annual rate in September (%) 1.3 1.8 Canada's September seasonally adjusted GDP monthly rate (%) 0.2 0.1 21:30 US personal monthly expenditure rate in October (%) 0.5 0.5 23:00 US October quarterly adjusted housing sales index monthly rate (%) 1.5 0.2 23:30 US EIA crude oil inventories in the week ending November 25 (10,000 barrels) -125.5 US EIA gasoline stocks change in the week ending November 25 (10,000 barrels) 231.7 03:00 on the next day American Economy Beige Book Thursday (December 1) event The former value Predictive value 8:30 Japan's Nikkei/Markit Manufacturing PMI final value in November 51.1 9:00 China's official manufacturing PMI in November 51.2 51.0 9:45 China's November Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.2 50.8 16:50 France's November Markit manufacturing PMI final value 51.5 51.6 16:55 Germany's November Markit manufacturing PMI final value 54.4 17:00 Eurozone November Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value 53.7 17:30 UK November Markit Manufacturing PMI 54.3 54.6 18:00 Italy's third quarter GDP annual rate final value (%) 0.9 21:30 The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States as of November 26 (ten thousand) 25.1 22:45 US November Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value 53.9 23:00 US November ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.9 52.1 US monthly construction expenditure monthly rate (%) -0.4 0.5 Friday (December 2) event The former value Predictive value 8:30 Australia's October seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate (%) 0.6 0.3 17:30 UK November Markit Construction PMI 52.6 52.2 18:00 Eurozone October PPI annual rate (%) -1.5 21:30 Non-agricultural employment population after the adjustment of the US in November (10,000) 16.1 18.0 US unemployment rate in November (%) 4.9 4.9 US average hourly wage rate in November (%) 2.8 2.8 21:30 Canada's unemployment rate in November (%) 7 7 Canada's employment changes in November (10,000) 4.39 0 02:00 the next day The total number of total drillings in the oil service Baker Hughes in the US as of December 2 (mouth) 593
Next week reminder
Monday (November 28th) Keywords: Draghi speech
At 22:00 Beijing time, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi made an introductory statement at the quarterly hearing of the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.
On November 21, Draghi publicly stated that he has promised to maintain the sustainability level of monetary easing to ensure that inflation reaches below or close to 2% in the medium term.
Tuesday (November 29th) Keywords: US GDP revision, Dudley speech
Focusing on the US third-quarter GDP revision is expected to cause short-term fluctuations in the US dollar. Given that the market has fully reflected the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations, it is expected that even if the data is brilliant, the boost to the US dollar will be relatively short-lived.
At 21:15 Beijing time, William Dudley, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delivered a speech on the theme "The economic growth opportunity of Puerto Rico and the lessons learned by the American municipality facing a similar crisis." The market is expected to have limited impact.
In addition, at 09:00 GMT, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gave a speech at the CD Howe Institute. Focus on the impact on the Canadian dollar.
Concerned about the API crude oil inventory data to be released the next morning, if the inventory increases significantly, it will drag down the oil price.
Wednesday (November 30) Keywords: OPEC meeting, ADP data, US core PCE price index, EIA inventory, Beige book
OPEC will meet on November 30 to coordinate production cuts. Russia, which is not an OPEC oil producer, may also participate, but there are still differences within OPEC about which countries should cut production and reduce production.
Most analysts believe that some form of production reduction agreement will be reached, but whether the strength is enough to support oil prices is still uncertain.
Kay's macro expectation that the OPEC meeting on November 30 will reaffirm its commitment to maintain production below 33 million barrels per day. During the meeting, it is expected that OPEC will reach an agreement even if it is for the face.
It continues to point out that the agreement cannot be mandatory, so it is unlikely that there will be a significant decline in production after the meeting. The price of US and Brazil at the end of the year is expected to remain at US$45/barrel. The sustainable recovery of oil prices will wait until next year.
EIA crude oil inventory data is expected to cause large fluctuations in oil prices. In addition, investors should also pay attention to the OPEC meeting news, the impact of inventory will be overshadowed by OPEC.
ADP employment data is often seen as a weathervane for non-agricultural employment reports. If the ADP employment data is brilliant, it will boost the market's optimism about Friday's non-agricultural data.
The US core PCE price index is a key indicator for the Fed to measure inflation. This data will bring fluctuations in the short-term trend of the US dollar.
At three o'clock the next morning, the Federal Reserve will announce the Beige Book of Economy. This will provide a perspective on how the Fed views the current economic trends.
In addition, 2016 FOMC voting committee, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester attended a luncheon to talk about monetary policy and economic prospects.
Thursday (December 1st) Keywords: National PMI
Concerning the impact of Caixin PMI on the RMB and the Australian dollar, the UK manufacturing PMI will also bring fluctuations to the pound. The impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI on the US dollar in November is even worse than the final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in November.
Friday (December 2) Keywords: non-agricultural, Canadian employment data
Next week, the US non-farm payroll report will be ushered in. The foreign media survey expects the number of non-agricultural employment in the US to increase by 180,000 in November. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%.
Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at BNY Mellon, said that unless the US employment data is bleak next week, everything else will prompt the Fed to act. Even if the employment data is particularly weak, the impact may be greatly reduced, as the transitional data will be revised.
In addition, investors need to pay attention to Canadian employment data. Due to the simultaneous release of US and Canadian employment data, the Canadian dollar is facing a short-term shock risk, but the impact of non-agriculture will overshadow the impact of Canadian employment data.
Sunday (December 4th) Keywords: Italian referendum
On December 4th Italy held a referendum on constitutional reform. The latest polls show that Italian voters will oppose constitutional reforms. If the constitutional failure fails, the support rate of the populist party “Movimento 5 Stelle†will increase greatly, and one of the party’s main plans is to promote Italy’s “de-referendumâ€. This will lead to increased risk aversion and investors selling risky assets.
The General Characteristics is:
February 07, 2023