The tax period is approaching the central bank's shift to large net investment

Securities Times Network () November 14th

Securities Times reporter Liu Yucheng

On November 14, the central bank issued a notice saying that the liquidity of the banking system was basically stable for the impact of the hedging tax period, government bond issuance and the central bank's reverse repurchase, and the RMB 280 billion counter was launched by interest rate bidding. Repurchase operation. Among them, the seven-day period was 130 billion yuan, the 14-day period was 120 billion yuan, and the 63-day period was 30 billion yuan. The winning bid rates were 2.45%, 2.60%, and 2.90%, respectively, which was the same as the previous period. After the counter-repurchase of 140 billion yuan due on the day of the hedging, the central bank realized a net investment of 140 billion yuan. It is worth noting that since the central bank launched the 63-day reverse repurchase operation on October 27, a total of 470 billion yuan of medium and long-term funds were put into the market in order to stabilize the capital market at the end of the year.

Since November, the central bank has gradually tightened its liquidity. The open market operations have been mainly based on net withdrawal since the beginning of the month, mainly due to the large amount of liquidity that was continuously released in October due to the intention of maintaining stability. Specifically, according to the statistics of Wind Information Financial Terminal, except for the November 3rd, the monthly MLF (interim loan lending) net investment of 107 billion yuan, and the small net investment of 50 billion yuan on November 10, November In the first half, there was a net return or full hedging of liquidity. This week, due to the short-term factors such as the tax period, the open market operation began to turn, and a large amount of liquidity was put into the market. The total net investment yesterday and today was 223.5 billion yuan.

According to the statistics of Wind Information Financial Terminal, this week, it will face a repurchase of 170 billion yuan and a refund of 122.5 billion MLF (interim loan lending), and there are still 3 months of treasury deposits due, analysts said. Under the background of continued financial de-leverage, capital fabrics will maintain a tight balance, while the central bank will maintain liquidity is basically stable, and it is difficult to have extreme phenomena.

Since last week, due to factors such as the expiration of large amounts of funds in the open market operations and the issuance of government bonds, the liquidity of the money market has continued to tighten. Day, Shibor Shanghai Banking 601,229, examination room shares Interbank Offered Rate) round up, which, overnight Shibor up 4 basis points to 2.8270 percent, the highest since October, a new high, which is the interest rate index consecutive rise 6, 2009, indicates that the current short-term Liquidity is gradually tightening.

Traders said that in mid-November, tax payment was the main factor affecting short-term liquidity. Judging from past experience, the two or three days near the middle of the month are the peak period of tax payment. With the centralized collection of taxes, the liquidity of the money market is under great pressure around the 15th. The above-mentioned trader said that although the current market funds are relatively tight, the degree of tension is limited, and the flat position is not difficult. At present, the central bank's open market operations have begun to shift to large-scale net investment, and the intensity has gradually increased, and the capital fabrics have limited pressure.

China Merchants Bank 600036, senior analyst Liu Dongliang diagnosed shares of Asset Management Department said that 11 months later the bank gradually slow the pace of delivery of assets, partly because of tighter credit at the end, on the other hand also to begin next year reserve assets, It is expected that the financial data for the two months at the end of the year will not exceed the expected performance. The general direction of the macroeconomics will not change, but the pace of weakening will be slower. The financial data at the end of the year may not be meaningful to the economy. It is expected that monetary policy will not Significant adjustments will occur, and financial regulatory policies will focus more on risk prevention and deleveraging.

(Securities Times News Center)