However, the ban was subsequently opposed by the Indian Ministry of Agriculture, which caused the price to return to around 21,600 yuan/ton. India will re-examine the ban on cotton exports this Friday. In response to this, despite the repeated bans on Indian exports, the impact on cotton prices is only temporary.
Since 1999, China has sporadically imported cotton from India. The proportion of total cotton imports in China is not high, only 0.74%. However, since 2003, the proportion of China’s imports of cotton from India has gradually increased.
As of 2011, China's cotton imports from India accounted for 30.15% of China's total cotton imports. At present, the share of China's cotton import market is the proportion of the United States, India each accounting for 1/3, the remaining one-third of the market is divided by Australia, Brazil, Uzbekistan and other small countries.
Looking back at the expected export volume data for India this year, according to the latest report of the US Department of Agriculture in February, India’s expected cotton export volume this year is 1.36 million tons. The amount of cotton that has been exported so far is about 800,000 tons. That said, India’s policy of export restrictions has reduced global cotton trade by 560,000 tons. This year, global cotton production was 26.685 million tons, and the consumption was only 23.87 million tons, which means that the supply of global cotton this season is extremely sufficient.
According to the forecast of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, China’s cotton production this year was 7.294 million tons, consumption was 9.58 million tons, and imports were 3.70 million tons. Under the remedy of imported cotton, China’s cotton supply was loose. However, the implementation of the national collection and storage policy in 2011 created a situation in which the overall cotton supply was in short supply. It is reported that as of March 8, 2011, the total amount of state cotton collection and storage reached 2.67731 million tons. Now India has restricted exports and reduced the import volume of China’s cotton. China’s cotton is in tight supply.
The Indian government issued an announcement on Monday to ban cotton exports, including export orders already registered with its government. Under the boost of this news, on the 5th, Zheng Cotton's contracts went red, and the main 1209 contract jumped to 22,000 yuan/ton.
May 19, 2019